Talk of a satellite takedown may be too extreme for Tokyo

Tonight (July 27), according to the data provided on the "Heavens Above" web site, two Japanese spy satellites - IGS - 1A and IGS - 1B - will pass overhead between 9 and 11PM, and each will be clearly visible here in Maine. See- http://www.heavens-above.com/ For IGS-1B in particular, time is running out. Launched in March 2003, and orbiting at an altitude of approximately 450 km, this Japanese spy satellite is starting to show signs that gravity is winning out and slowly bringing this satellite down. Identified officially as USSPACECOM Catalog No.: 27699 and International Designation Code: 2003-009-B, it is heading back to Earth soon, and what exactly the Japanese government is going to do about it, if anything, is unknown. For months, veteran amateur satellite observers based in Canada and Europe in particular have started to attract Tokyo's attention. These sky-scanning enthusiasts are actively comparing and contrasting the situation surrounding IGS - 1B with the situation surrounding USA 193, the satellite which was shot down by the U.S. Navy in 2008. Fortunately, if the numbers are correct, the fuel loads aboard the two satellites are vastly different with IGS-1B holding just a small percentage of the amount in USA 193's fuel tank. See - http://www.sattrackcam.blogspot.com/  One prediction calls for a possible re-entry by IGS-1B to occur at approximately this time next year. If and when it occurs, the fate of the hydrazine fuel load will be anyone's guess, because guessing is about all that everyone can do save for a few Tokyo government insiders and Japanese contract personnel who know exactly how much fuel was on board this satellite at the time it was launched 8 years ago. The U.S. government undertook its 2008 shootdown was because it was a prudent public health measure based on the toxicity of hydrazine, but this stance was criticized from the start, and I must admit that I had a hard time buying this argument. See - http://www.informationdissemination.net/ But now, because of this precedent set by the US Navy, Tokyo will have to grapple with the same logic. A decision will have to be made, and the process surrounding how this decision is made will have to be very transparent as well. Launching a strike and shooting down IGS-1B using a Japanese warship equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System may seem farfetched, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Just ask the crew of the USS Lake Erie. Timing is everything, and what makes the timeframe for a possible interception of IGS - 1B even more sensitive is that Japan's MoD is very much aware of the fact that whatever happens, it will closely follow next year's "Juniper Cobra" exercise which is expected to feature the most spectacular display of U.S. and Israeli anti- missile technology ever seen, including the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and, the Israeli Arrow 2 and Iron Dome systems. Will the fact that a U.S. Navy cruiser engages in a full demonstration of its Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System during "Juniper Cobra" compel the Japanese MSDF to match this display with a display of its own and take down IGS - 1B in the process? What if the results of "Juniper Cobra" are less than satisfactory, will such results bear on what might take place shortly thereafter in the Pacific? Again, these questions only apply to the late 2012 projected descent.  On account of the billions of dollars spent thus far, this all about proving that the interception of inbound missiles in real-time now enjoys a zero-defect status, and that defensive platforms now exist to accomplish this task in a rapid and reliable manner. This is a sensitive topic indeed in Tokyo thanks to North Korea's aggressive posturing lately. The Japanese people may not be wildly enthusiastic about such anti-missile exercises, but the flip side is to simply let IGS-1B fall out of the sky on its own. Based on the argument used for the shootdown of USA 193, that could have devastating consequences, especially if IGS-1B suddenly descends upon a heavily populated area. So the Japanese might start asking themselves what they want to see happen and why. The Japanese government might want to have its answers ready soon too concerning how much fuel is on board and what it sees as a likely outcome.

Summer Reading: In Defense of Japan

Last year, a must read book surfaced for those of us who track the complex world of the Japanese space sector. "In Defense of Japan: From the Market to the Military in Space Policy," by Saadia Pekkanen and Paul Kallendar-Umezu (published by Stanford University Press, ISBN 080470063X) may not be the definitive work on this subject, but this writer is hard pressed indeed to identify any recent book in English that comes close to covering as much ground as this one does. The bottom line is that anyone who looks closely at what Japan is doing in space might want to look again - this time from the perspective of China and Korea. Where Japan appears to pursue peaceful space experiments, for example, the seeds for prototype space bombers akin to those under development for the U.S. "Prompt Global Strike" program may be lurking. Sure, skeptics might counter, the realm of space is awash in dual-purpose platforms, and anyone can extract a military purpose or profile from what is probably a conventional scientific and research mission. This book takes such skepticism in stride and leaves it up to the readers to decide if the defense-oriented pattern that permeates the Japanese space sector is merely a coincidence or a Ministry of Defense endorsed campaign. This book challenges the reader by addressing the subject as it pertains both to the broader subject of Japanese remilitarization - enabled by political and cultural shifts - as well as the possible emergence of a nuclear-weaponized Japan. The book requires a basic understanding of the Japanese institutional, historical, and legal forces at work. And because so much emphasis is placed on the role of a few elite Japanese corporations as the key catalysts in the evolving process, it also helps to understand their role as defense contractors in areas other than space. Add it all up, and you are presented with rather compelling evidence. Whether or not you accept the premise that Japan is a military space power today, this book reminds you constantly that regardless of which party is in power - DPJ or LDP - Japan's militarization of space assets is likely to remain on auto-pilot for decades to come. The book does offer an abundance of charts which are extremely valuable unto themselves. More than 80 pages of notes provide the reader with ample documentation. At the same time, the reader is left to wonder where exactly in the Ministry of Defense are the points of intersection when it comes to the layering of the subgroups which are assigned to these various space projects by the big corporations - both U.S. and Japanese - that receive so much attention in this 377-page volume. Also, the authors state that, "the push toward smaller satellites remains a work in progress" before proceeding to discuss all the small satellite projects now underway in Japanese universities, for example. Years ago, in one of my earliest articles on the Japanese space program, "A Sleeper in the Space Race" (Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, July 1987), the launch of Japan's small Marine Observation Satellite -1 (MOS-1) was mentioned as an example of Japanese space engineering prowess. So, what is a work in progress apparently spans decades. Of course, I also predicted in 1987 that the steady progress of the Japanese launch sector would certainly deprive the Soviets of opportunities to launch payloads from the West. I was certainly proven wrong over time. And yet, the authors rightfully assert that the inability of the Japanese to capitalize on the commercial launch and payload business contributed enormously to the steady shift by Japanese space sector companies to a shared defense-oriented business plan. The recent sale of Japanese-built satellites to Turksat remain the exception and not the rule. Hopefully, Japan can sell some more satellites soon. So, there is plenty of time left this summer for you to add this book to your must read list. And for those who need a little Japanese space trivia to spur you along, here it is. Who was the first Japanese to fly in space? Toyohiro Akiyama, a reporter for TBS who went up on the Russian Soyuz in 1990. Here we are more than 20 years later, and soon everyone going up will have to carry a ticket issued by the Russians.

Bar Harbor Bike Shop Mobilizes for 3/11 Victims

This is a somber solar note. Tourists from all over the world come to Acadia National Park here on Mount Desert Island, Maine where they often climb Cadillac Mountain to watch the beautiful sunrise. Cadillac Mt. summit is billed as the first place in the continental U.S. to receive the sun's rays during the dawn of each new day. Because many Japanese have made the early morning trek up Cadillac, readers might be interested to learn that my good friends at the Bar Harbor Bike Shop have created a novel fund-raising campaign which captures the spirit of Cadillac in support of the victims of the 3/11 earthquake and tsunami.

The sad fate of  Rikuzentakata and its many lost and missing residents in particular prompted this fundraiser.

The Bar Harbor Bike Shop has a raffle underway, and custom-designed "Climb Cadillac" T-shirts for $35 can be purchased by anyone who has reached the top of Cadillac on foot or on a bike, but not by car. The time of the ascent is not important. Proceeds from these T shirts and $5 raffle tickets will be donated to the relief efforts overseen by the Japan Society in New York City. Many prizes including a $1000 bike are part of this raffle. The T-shirt purchase includes 3 tickets.

Contact information is available at -

http://www.barharborbike.com/

Japanese team readies rover for lunar competition

In early June, a group of 20 people got together in Tokyo for a combined social gathering and lunar-related brainstorming session. This was hosted by White Label Space Japan LLC (WLS-J), part of a multinational team that is aspiring to win the grand prize which will be awarded to the first Google Lunar X-Prize (GLXP) team that lands a rover on the moon which can successfully complete a 500-meter trek across the lunar surface while transmitting high definition video and data back to Earth. There are 29 teams from all across the world competing. WLS-J is primarily responsible for building a broader base of support and promoting the activities of one of those teams, Netherlands-based White Label Space (WLS). If everything goes according to plan, a prototype of a Japanese-built WLS lunar rover will be ready for public viewing by the end of this summer. That work is taking place for WLS at Tohoku University in the Department of Aerospace Engineering's Space Robotics Laboratory under the leadership of Professor Kazuya Yoshida. While the Laboratory is well known for its important space-related projects, a very sophisticated mobile robot known as Quince is also being built there. Quince will be used in the Fukushima nuclear reactor plant. Professor Tadokoro is in charge of this rapid development project. As Founder and CEO of WLS-J, Takeshi Hakamada is attempting to reach out to as many people as possible with a broad range of backgrounds. "First of all, we think promotion is the most important thing to do to raise funding so that we think the 'fun meeting' is one of our promotion tools to educate and motivate people to get involved in WLS activities," said Hakamada. "It was successful. Around 20 people came and discussed how to promote GLXP and WLS in Japan with WLS-J team members. We plan to hold this type of event every month." Hakamada described the attendees as a mix of young Japanese professionals who are interested in space development and have their own professional careers, such as management consultants, PR agents, scientists, and engineers. "We are discussing the business plan and how to manage team activities. We are almost finished with the planning phase and ready to move on to the implementation phase." Said Hakamada. "Besides various companies and individuals who are interested in WLS and who have started to discuss future collaboration, the number of volunteers who want to help us with WLS-related activities is increasing every week. How to use them is now one of our happy, but serious issues." Steven Allen, WLS's Team Leader, describes WLS as "a global adventure of massive proportions." Among other things, it appears to be the largest European-Asian partnership engaged in the GLXP competition. "The team continues to grow in size, but the level of effort that people (can offer WLS) varies due to the fact that the work is unpaid and everyone needs also to make a living," said Allen. WLS is attracting many talented individuals because they are frustrated with government space programs (or the lack thereof), and these people like having the freedom that they cannot find elsewhere in the space sector as well. "This ability to work on what they love creatively and collaboratively without being bound by archaic space industry work practices (is very important to them). The space industry in Europe especially seems to have been built to kill off any form of enthusiasm and is built to maintain the current status quo," said Allen. "The result is a lack of genuine space technology innovation, high cost, red tape and engineers that wonder why they bothered to investing a large amount of their time and energy to join the industry." Allen very much appreciates what Hakamada is trying to do at WLS-J with his "fun meeting" concept. "In order for us to raise the funds we need, we need to get more PR people on board ASAP. Anyone out there with the marketing skills that we need, and is willing to put in the hours to get us where we need to be, please feel free to contact us," said Allen. Check out the WLS and WLS-J web sites at - http://www.mail2web.com/cgi-bin/redir.asp?lid=0&newsite=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ewhitelabelspace%2Ecom%2F http://www.mail2web.com/cgi-bin/redir.asp?lid=0&newsite=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Egooglelunarxprize%2Eorg%2Flunar%2Fteams%2Fwhite%2Dlabel%2Dspace%2F http://www.mail2web.com/cgi-bin/redir.asp?lid=0&newsite=http%3A%2F%2Fwhitelabelspacejapanoffice%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F (Japanese) Allen also describes the progress on the rover by Professor Yoshida's team as "astounding" especially when you consider that devastating effects of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami on the region surrounding Tohoku University. Besides the vital support from the group at Tohoku University and WLS-J, WLS has relied on "Lunar Numbat" which are WLS's partners from Australia and New Zealand. "They have also done some incredible work for us, and are in fact critical to our overall mission success," said Allen. "The biggest challenge for our team right now is finance. We are a technology heavy team, and one of the few that has members that have real life experience with actual space missions. So, we do need some people onboard right now that can help us out with both finance and PR." India - home to many enthusiasts and experts who are members of various GLXP teams - may play an important role here in terms of getting WLS to the Moon. "We still intend to use an Indian PSLV-XL launch vehicle, which has both a good track record and is cost effective in comparison to some of the other options we have considered," said Allen, who monitors other Asian teams, but does not see them "doing anything particularly outstanding" thus far. "There are some teams in Europe doing interesting things both technically and on the marketing side, but there is no sign of any major funding for them. Personally, I like the work that Frednet and ARCA have been doing, and of course, the joyous craziness that Synergy Moon brings to the competition," said Allen. Allen finds it unfortunate that neither ESA nor JAXA,"has stepped up to the plate to offer financial support to teams from Europe and Japan." So, mark your calendars for the final week in August. That is when the curtain will go up on the 4-wheel rover prototype that the team at the Space Robotics Laboratory has been designing and fabricating for concept verification and ground-based field testing. "Today, we are working on the onboard electronics for wheel motor control and omni-cam image processing for mapping and navigation. Now, we are planning a big party for the prototype roll-out in Tokyo where we will demonstrate basic mobility and panorama viewing capability using an onboard omni-directional camera," said Professor Yoshida. The biggest challenge facing the team has been wheel and chassis design. What is emerging is a rover which is 300 x 400 x 500 mm in size, 10 kg in mass, and equipped with 4 wheels which are 200 mm in diameter. "We know that larger dimensions in wheel diameter, wheelbase, and track are certainly advantageous for the locomotion in loose soil environment, such as Moon surface covered with lunar regolith. We therefore designed a deployable chassis," said Professor Yoshida. "The chassis has a passive suspension mechanism that ensures a stable contact of wheels on rough and bumpy surface. The proportion of the wheel diameter of our rover is the biggest when compared to the rovers of other teams, and this will make a big difference in overall mobility on the Moon." Thermal design is certainly important, and a very challenging aspect for such a tiny rover with 10kg in mass, too. "We need to keep the temperature of the driving motors and onboard electronics in an appropriate range against intense sunlight and its reflection from the shiny surface," said Professor Yoshida. "This will be a future challenge when we design the Engineering Model (EM) as a next step." Besides WLS-J, Prof. Yoshida can detect no other GLXP teams with headquarters or partners in Japan. "To the best of our knowledge, there are no individuals in Japan supporting other teams. Yes, we are surprised by this since Japan has a lot to offer the GLXP," said Prof. Yoshida. "Our technology is known all over the world, and we already have strong space programs including lunar missions. Also, we have many large global companies that would be ideal sponsors." While Allen is unhappy about the lack of support from ESA and JAXA, NASA is a different story entirely. "We are particularly watching the American teams that have received seed capital from a special NASA program. Each of those teams are developing a special key technology needed for lunar landing. The support they are getting from NASA is very useful to fund the early phases of their mission developments, but it is not enough to close their business cases. They will eventually need one or more big sponsorship deals," said Prof. Yoshida. He is referring to NASA's Innovative Lunar Demonstrations Data (ILDD) program which Allen describes as "a critical source of funding for GLXP teams with members based in the USA, while at the same time giving them a governmental rubber stamp of approval for the technology they are developing."  "In these times of economic uncertainty, European and Asian space agencies should really be trying to foster a startup culture that will bring competition and much needed innovation to the space industry market place (instead of state monopoly) and bring down the cost to taxpayers who are the people that actually have to foot the bill," said Allen, who estimates that the first GLXP rover will actually land on the MOON in 2014 at the earliest, but I would love to be surprised." (I often edit / rewrite  text and press releases written in English by other GLXP teams based outside the U.S. The Russian team known as Team Selenokhod, and the Shanghai-based Team Selene ask frequently for my assistance which I provide free of charge. I have also assisted newer teams from Brazil, and Chile, but they seldom knock on my door lately. Team Selenokhod ranks at the top of my list in terms of actual work performed to date.)